PC & chip sales decline in U.S. for first time in 10 years as mobile spreads

from Marketplace….

“We have one desktop and everything else is pretty small and mobile,” John said. <who owns a family business>.

He adds that his family is online a lot, but his wife surfs the web on an iPad. And his kids?

“The kids, they don’t have their own computers but they’ve inherited our old iPhones and they work fine in terms of getting onto the Internet,” he said.

The shift to mobile computing on tablets and smartphones is hitting the sales of computers and chips in the U.S., with the first significant decline in both since 2002. The worldwide economic conditions do not help.  HP, Acer, Dell, Intel and AMD have suffered.  These companies must focus now on developing markets in international territories, where there is market share to gain.

For the full report ~

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/tech/market-desktops-decline

Crowdfunding – an introduction

I made my first contribution to an off-Broadway stage play in development recently, on Kickstarter.  It was fun to support my colleague in his efforts, and in fact, he raised his goal within his time limit, which was even more exciting.

Crowdfunding is a means of raising capital via Internet outreach from many people (friends, family, fans and strangers) in various amounts, to reach a stated goal that those people would like to support.  The various crowdfunding platforms (The Economist reports more than 450 worldwide at this time) employ different models — some offer rewards like preview tickets or other promotional gifts, some offer inclusion in their community, while others offer a profit motive.

Crowdfunding has been around in various forms (1997 for a British music group, 2001 for an American music website — see Wikipedia on this), gaining steam beginning in 2008 and well-implemented now in 2012 using varying business models.

Crowdfunding funds artists, musicians, filmmakers, theater projects, journalists & bloggers, intellectual property of all sorts, startup companies (particularly tech), charitable organizations, and micro-financing ventures, among other examples.  Contributions and investments range from small amounts to thousands of dollars.

In April of this year (2012), President Obama signed the JOBS Act into law (“Jumpstart our Business Startup Act”), with bi-partisan support.  The Act is now under consideration by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) on details of its implementation.  Supporters applaud its flexibility and its reach in supporting new ventures, while detractors worry about how to protect the unsophisticated (“unaccredited”) investor, and, more telling, how the Act will disrupt the regulations now in place for certain audit and reporting requirements when taking a company public.  See Wikipedia for an overview; see the Library of Congress for the text of the Act.

In this first introduction, I just want to share some resources for your exploration:

Of course this just the beginning of a new approach to funding. It will engender debate and regulation and both good and bad effects.  But we are experimenting with whole countries and worldwide populations to see what we can create with our new tools.

The excitement comes from watching the emergence of the new models of business, collaboration and life-choices enabled by our newest technologies, which change the world and our lives in new ways we never dreamed of before.  Here’s one more, one close to my heart.

Offshoring, the new economics and the American middle class – a detailed look at Apple & Asia in the New York Times

Earlier this week, on Monday, I was out to dinner with friends at one of our local Santa Monica hang-outs, a rather funky neighborhood place with good food and lots of room, and quiet.

At 7:30, in an orderly assembly, 45 Asian teenagers arrived and filled the big booths with 6 kids each, both boys and girls.  Half the large restaurant was filled with these charming kids, about 14 years old.  Their leader was a dapper Asian gentleman around 50, who quietly (nearly silently) directed them to arrange themselves in their booths, and then left them to join 3 other adults at a separate table.  The kids ordered, ate, talked among themselves.  The adults had their dinner and did not interfere with them even once.

And the restaurant was as quiet as if they were not there.  The kids had a good time and enjoyed their food.  This was clearly a celebratory outing for them all.  I realized it was the Chinese New Year (Monday, January 23rd, 2012), the first evening of the year of the dragon, and that was the celebration.

And they in no way disturbed any of the other folks in the restaurant.  No acting out, no food fights, no discipline of any kind was required.  Upon our finishing our meal and leaving, my husband approached the leader, bowed slightly and complimented him on the exemplary behavior of his young charges.  The man was delighted, came over to the other 3 of us, bowed and shook our hands, beaming and saying thank you.

Now, I tell you this story because that morning I had read, online at the New York Times, about the economics of off-shoring manufacturing and logistics in Asia, by Apple and most other consumer electronics companies.  This article seems, at first, to be an indictment against Apple and others, but in fact quite clearly explains the cost/benefit realities of the Asian vs. the American workforce — the flexibility, the speed, the low cost, and the results achieved by off-shoring, when it is well-managed by Apple or others… and the lack of appropriate skilled workers at the required levels and the lack of training for such jobs within the U.S. workforce.

I have built a company in China, so I have some experience about both its changing economy and the working life of the Chinese, as well as the challenges its government faces in feeding 1.3 billion citizens.  I have been an entrepreneur in the U.S. for 25 years, so I know something about building businesses here too.

This article filled me with both excitement about the global marketplace, and with some dread for the U.S. workforce (at least in the short term).  My optimism about our resilience and flexibility, and the opportunities seen at other end of this period of major change, remains undaunted.

It is a long article, and worth reading every word.  The world has indeed flattened, and the realities of that change begin with this information.

 

IdeaMensch’s 33 Entrepreneurs making the world better

I wanted to share IdeaMensch’s post profiling 33 entrepreneurs who have started businesses, initiatives, not-for-profits and projects that are focused on making the world a better place to live… for the recipients and for the givers.

Particularly interesting is the range of folks presented — from all countries, both genders, all ages, with a focus on not just technology (although most use the current technologies) but on support to local issues, foreign countries, animals and children.

An inspiring and welcome review.

http://ideamensch.com/33-entrepreneurs-who-make-this-world-a-better-place/

Technology, Free Agency, Y2K, the Great Recession and today’s workforce

Long time comin’

The current state of the US workforce has not only been changed in the last three years, since the beginning of the Great Recession.  These changes had been coming for 30 years, beginning with the arrival of the first personal computer in 1981.

When the PC arrived on the scene, the beginning of the shift from repetitive labor to machine labor began in earnest.  Remember Steve Jobs’ first line about Apple in 1981?  He called his new machine “the computer for the rest of us.”  That shift to computing for the rest of us, as it evolved over time, has changed all the ways that we work, communicate and conduct our commerce.

 

Y2K 

Moving ahead nearly 20 years, from 1981 to 1998, we had a little-remembered experience called Y2K.  This was a worldwide alarm that the large computers that ran the business of the world would suffer from a significant glitch, and possibly a breakdown, as we moved into the year 2000. Inside computers, data for dates for the year were at that time set in two digits (xx and not 19xx) and we were moving from 1998 and1999 towards 2000. The Y2K crisis was averted, not because the threat wasn’t real, but because techies the world over were mobilized for the fix.

What was significant about this?  This successful fix brought to the world’s attention the existence of a competent talent pool for technology in countries outside of the U.S. and Europe.  This was the beginning of outsourcing and offshoring, which today, more than 10 years later, has significant impact on the economies of many countries, particularly the U.S.

 

The rise of the Internet, the Information Worker, and Free Agency

Around that time (at the turn of the century), we saw the rapid adoption of the Internet and the industries that sprang from that platform, which in fact began in the mid-1990’s and continues to this day, 2011.  This ubiquitous adoption of technology has changed our ways of communicating and purchasing and working.

During the same time, we were seeing American industry shift away from Manufacturing (which was more and more produced by machines and offshore workers) to the Information and Services industries.  There was much talk about entering the Information Age and needing to become “information workers.”

Also in the mid-1990’s we saw the rise of Free Agency in European sports, which moved quickly to the U.S., and from sports to the American workforce.   This notion of workers (particularly Information Workers) functioning as Free Agents eroded America’s long-held ideas about job security.  And that eroded any notion of job loyalty.  Generational shifts contributed to this movement.

 

Economic upheavals too

As we moved forward towards 2008, the industrialized world created its Great Recession (after enduring the dot.com bust in 2000 and the post 9/11/01 downturn).  These economic upheavals combined with our competing global market to create great pressure on organizations and the workforce to drive increased productivity and lowered costs.  This productivity would be found by machine, by offshoring, and by putting pressure on the existing workforce to produce more for less, to work longer hours for the same (or lower) pay, and using fewer workers to support these efforts.

If we look beyond the greed of bankers, the incompetence of politicians, and the other places where we might point our fingers, we can see that the current state of the U.S. workforce has been long in coming.

 

Tactics to consider for the future

It helps to look the larger picture when assessing the condition of the U.S. labor force, and our own personal positions in our careers.

There are some steps that we can take to meet the demands of the current workforce, and protect ourselves against future changes.

  •  Educate yourself about the changes that are predicted by economists and labor watchers.
  •  Adapt your skills and offerings to meet these changes.
  • Control your personal finances and avoiding debt.

If just starting out in your career and finding it difficult to get work but easier to train or educate yourself, then train in three separate industries to a basic competence.  This will allow you to change fields as the world changes and the markets shift.  Look to fields where economics and demographics indicate there will be a demand for your training (e.g., nursing or medicine rather than history, business rather than philosophy, or technology/computer skills rather than the arts, and so on).

If you are a service provider or a consultant, adapt your offerings and your pricing to meet the paying threshold available from your client base in this new economy.  Find a way to offer your services in a way they can be consumed with ease.  This does not mean lowering your prices, so much as repackaging your services and the way you exchange value.

If you are a product company, determine the surest way to reduce your cost of goods and to expand your markets.

If you are a technology company, build as much technology as possible with products available “off the shelf,” or “off the internet” before you accept any outside capital.  Also, use the Internet skillfully to reach your audience (and distribute to them) in the least expensive way possible.

Personally and professionally, live within your means, and avoid debt except for an investment in your new skills training, or in meeting the growth demands of your business.  Become savvy in the best ways to manage your finances and lower any debt you consider.

It is important to be sensitive to how the world is changing, and to fit your life experience, talents and work opportunities to the changes that will continue on from today into the future.

Will stock market chaos create venture capital downturn?

Dateline:  August 13th 2011, Saturday, after the tumultuous markets have closed…

There has been some chatter online this past week raising concerns about venture capitalists pulling back on their funding activities, in light of this week’s erratic activity on the stock market, and the withdrawal of several planned IPOs.  I want to share several positions about this with you.

In case you were off the grid last week, here is a short re-cap posted Wednesday, August 10th.  Thursday and Friday the stock market went down and up, and settled the week down.

http://www.entrepreneur.com/blog/220145

Of the two (stock market chaos or lost IPOs), the change in IPO activity may be the most significant.  Venture capitalists are excited by a predictable exit market, either strong M&A (mergers and acquisition) activity or several powerful IPOs coming in the near future.  If they believe they must wait for these liquidity events, or cannot predict when these will be active, the VCs will become more conservative in their choices, and protect their portfolios.

From the Associated Press, again on Wednesday August 10th, about the cancelled IPOs:

http://www.salon.com/wires/techbiz/2011/08/10/D9P1E0800_us_ipos_canceled/index.html

“Tempest in a teapot” one of my clients remarked (although, as we have increased his personal consulting income to $400-$500K this year, he may not be concerned).  I also wondered why the sudden stock market strangeness (I understand the IPO behavior) should appear now, when the world has had the information of its economic state for months and months.  Yes, Europe’s troubles looked worse, and the S&Ps hissy fit has some news hype value, and somebody spat in France’s eye, but really — all this news is more of the same, if realists were confronting the underlying conditions for the past months and years (that is, that nothing in the core of the troubles has been fixed since 2008 – but more on that next week).

But, I digress.. back to the chatter and links.

So, some are saying that the economic uncertainty reflected by the stock market’s roller coaster behavior will drive venture capitalists, particularly those investing in early stage tech stocks, to stop investing.  By “stop investing” they mean that the venture capitalists might retreat into the behavior we saw after the tech crash of 2000 (and the economic downturn following 9/11 in 2001) and the economic crash of the Great Recession in 2008.

I was there for each of these, and yes, there was a pattern in all that, and it could recur.  It looked like this:

  • Deals that were not completed at that time rarely were completed.
  • VCs took, justifiably, defensive measures to ensure that their existing portfolio companies had enough capital to move forward on their growth cycle.  The VCs allocated much of their existing Funds to those investments already secured.  This left much less for “venturing” into new risks. And the VC’s return on investment (ROI) on their portfolios was threatened, and that ROI is the basis of the VCs being able to raise their next Fund and so to survive.
  • VCs became more conservative in the risks they would take.  On my various VC panels in the tech industry (Digital Hollywood, CES, and others), they admitted (this was 2008 and early 2009) they were “broadening their early stage searches” to include those startups that had revenue and market traction.  This criteria became a standard, leaving seed and Series A capital more and more to angel investors and angel groups.
  • Deal terms became more aggressive against the entrepreneur, to protect the VCs from potential downside.
  • Years of limited capital drove entrepreneurs to bootstrap their companies (since there weren’t jobs for them anyway) and get their companies into a much safer stage once the capital began to flow again.

One entrepreneur has an optimistic outlook about building new businesses when “winter is coming.”

http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2011/08/winter-is-coming.html?m=1

And here is a neat contrarian blog on the case for the “Fat Startup” from Ben Horowitz, co-founder/general partner of Andreessen Horowitz, from March of 2010, worth considering:

http://allthingsd.com/20100317/the-case-for-the-fat-startup/

I am avoiding all political commentary here, and caring only about the robustness of the U.S. economy in the sectors where I can make a difference: with my clients, who are early stage tech and tech/media entrepreneurs (and I have been through 5 cycles of technology or economic downturns).

My concern is that the cycles of boom and bust are coming too close together.

  • After the downturn of 2000/2001, the VCs didn’t get truly active again until 2004.
  • The next bust was 2008, with investment beginning again in 2010, and more actively in 2011.
  • Three to four years of an active investing cycle is not enough time for entrepreneurs to recover from these downturns, especially if the uptick in investing lasts only 3 years going further.  This cycle stresses the VCs and their new Funds as well.
  • VCs are handling portfolios with an exit cycle of 6-8 years from funding.  Entrepreneurs may launch and get traction in 3 years after funding (which means 4-5 years after they begin the company), but they are rarely scaling until year 4 post-funding.
  • Notice the age of the potential IPOs — up to 8-10 years to build value and find a good IPO window (perhaps now closed again).

In the larger picture, technology and media are the best and most widely received exports from the U.S., year after year.  I know the world economic problems are larger and deeper than my little sectors.  That said, my little sectors offer significant players in our economy and around the world.  Apple?  Google?

So, the chatter may be too dramatic and too soon.  Or too dramatic and woefully late, given what we have known about the economy since 2008.

What to do?  More on that next week, but for now–

  • keep building your companies, your technologies, your breakthroughs.  Who knows what will happen next week or next month?
  • Consider alternative forms of funding — private funding for an idea re-conceived for this new economic reality; strategic funding from a win/win bigger company that needs what you have; licensing and strategic revenue and no equity or debt funding at all;
  • Consider a different take on your product or service idea, or your target market sector, or your market timing, and create a company that builds wealth for you independent of the vagaries of the stock market and other people’s ideas about capital, risk and what is real. This is my favorite kind of company to build.

More next week on this, and ideas for avoiding the crisis of downturns.

Italian Financial Crisis: A.D. 33

I recently found an interesting passage in Will Durant’s classic Caesar and Christ: A History of Roman Civilization and Christianity from the beginnings to A.D. 325, which is Part III of his and Ariel Durant’s The Story of Civilization.

The famous “panic” of A.D. 33 illustrates the development and complex interdependence of banks and commerce in the Empire. Augustus had coined and spent money lavishly, on the theory that its increased circulation, low interest rates, and rising prices would stimulate business. They did; but as the process could not go on forever, a reaction set in as early as 10 B.C., when this flush minting ceased. Tiberius rebounded to the opposite theory that the most economical economy is the best. He severely limited the governmental expenditures, sharply restricted new issues of currency, and hoarded 2,700,000,000 sesterces in the Treasury.

The resulting dearth of circulating medium was made worse by the drain of money eastward in exchange for luxuries. Prices fell, interest rates rose, creditors foreclosed on debtors, debtors sued usurers, and money-lending almost ceased. The Senate tried to check the export of capital by requiring a high percentage of every senator’s fortune to be invested in Italian land; senators thereupon called in loans and foreclosed mortgages to raise cash, and the crisis rose. When the senator Publius Spinther notified the bank of Balbus and Ollius that he must withdraw 30,000,000 sesterces to comply with the new law, the firm announced its bankruptcy.

At the same time the failure of an Alexandrian firm, Seuthes and Son due to their loss of three ships laden with costly spices and the collapse of the great dyeing concern of Malchus at Tyre, led to rumors that the Roman banking house of Maximus and Vibo would be broken by their extensive loans to these firms. When its depositors began a “run” on this bank it shut its doors, and later on that day a larger bank, of the Brothers Pettius, also suspended payment. Almost simultaneously came news that great banking establishments had failed in Lyons, Carthage, Corinth, and Byzantium. One after another the banks of Rome closed. Money could be borrowed only at rates far above the legal limit. Tiberius finally met the crisis by suspending the land-investment act and distributing 100,000,000 sesterces to the banks, to be lent without interest for three years on the security of realty. Private lenders were thereby constrained to lower their interest rates, money came out of hiding, and confidence slowly re-turned.

This wonderful piece arrived in my Inbox without credit to its original creator — thank you, anonymous writer.  It is humbling to realize how long our financial errors have been repeated without our learning our lessons, from history or from our own pain. ~joey

Microsoft + Skype and the march to the Billion members (Jason Calacanis interprets the play)

I have known Jason Calacanis since the mid-1990s, when he hadn’t yet moved from New York to Southern California, and was publishing the Silicon Alley Report and the Digital Coast Reporter. I have always admired his unique take on new situations, and so it is again with his post on his blog Launch about Microsoft’s purchase of Skype.

I urge you to follow this long posting to the end, as more and more information is revealed about the major players of our day.

Thanks, Jason, for posting your opinion.

http://launch.is/blog/l018-how-microsoft-spent-7b-on-skype-and-15b-on-a-facebook-k.html

Mixed results for Cuba’s free-market experiment by Grant Fuller/ Marketplace

Thursday, April 14, 2011

I was struck by this report and wanted to share it with you… how many times do we complain about how difficult it is to be an entrepreneur?  Well, try it in another country not so generous as the U.S.  When I had been on the road for six years and wanted to settle in to work, I returned home, because it was the only place with the support and infrastructure to let a new business succeed. ~ joey

Last year Cuban President Raul Castro created a private sector made up of 178 different jobs. But that move has created an awkward marriage of socialism and capitalism.

Cubans need a license just to sell dish soap on the street.

Salvador Valle, 21, got a license to repair tires in the town of Guanabo. (Grant Fuller).

Kai Ryssdal: There is going to be a rare meeting in Havana this weekend. The first Cuban Communist Party Congress to be held in 14 years. There will be special mention of the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion, which was 50 years ago this Sunday. But a lot of the discussion is going to be about Cuba’s economic reforms. Last year President Raul Castro created a private sector made up of 178 different kinds of jobs — everything from locksmiths to gardeners to tour guides. That’s a big deal in a country where 95 percent of the population works for the government.

But Grant Fuller reports from Cuba it’s an awkward marriage of socialism and capitalism.

Grant Fuller: Twenty-one-year-old Salvador Valle leans on a chain-link fence in the small beachside town of Guanabo. He’s one of many Cubans in a nervous trial period right now — trying to make the best of his country’s free-market experiment.

Salvador Valle: I’m a tire mechanic and repairman. You know, that’s the job I chose to get a license for because it’s a necessity here. If you get stranded with a flat tire on your car, bike, tractor, or whatever, you’re gonna have to get it fixed.

And fixed often. Most of Cuba’s cars are classic American models from the 1950s, and they take a beating on potholed roads. So Valle’s skill is in high demand. Charging only a dime to fix a flat, he’s not raking it in. In fact, he struggles to make a dollar a day. But he says for young people like him, self-employment is a chance to break free from the shackles of government wages. After all, the monthly salary for public employees is just $10-20..

Valle: I have to buy disposable diapers for my son that cost $12. If I worked for the state, I’d have to work for a full month to buy one package. And if I use that money for diapers, then how do I eat? How do I buy clothes for my wife and I?

At a weekend street market in Havana, about a dozen vendors are trying out this new system of free enterprise. Next to state-run food stalls that were always there, private citizens line the sidewalk with card tables. They sell everything — from plants and household items to coffee and jewelry.

Lazaro Delgado has set up a new sidewalk flower stand. He agreed to an interview, but only behind closed doors in his apartment. He says he makes $2 a day. That’s three times the salary of the average Cuban.

Lazaro Delgado: This is the best thing the Cuban government has done to help us. They’re giving everyone the chance to work, helping us all start doing something. The state is giving people a chance to make it.

But for other Cubans, President Raul Castro’s grand plan seems to have backfired.

Man: I have a license to be a dance instructor, but I think I’m gonna go to the office and give it back tomorrow because I cannot afford it.

This man in Havana used to work for a government funeral home. But he injured himself and could no longer lift the heavy caskets. So when he heard about the reform, he snapped up permission to open a dance school. Problem is, he has no money for the startup capital he needs: a stereo system and a studio space. And taxes are high — as much as 40 percent of his income.

Man: I felt really proud when I got the license. But I talked to my family and we decided it is best just to give up. If they lower the taxes, though, I’ll probably go back and get the license again.

The government recently announced that Cuban banks will provide small loans to private businesses, helping them get off the ground. Cuban state media heavily promotes the change, like in this radio news spot.

Radio news report: This measure includes the approval of loans.

But skeptics wonder if the banks can actually follow through.

The hope for new business owners is that Castro will indeed lower self-employment taxes at this weekend’s Communist Party Congress.

In Havana, I’m Grant Fuller for Marketplace.

Grant Fuller’s reporting trip to Cuba was sponsored by The Common Language Project.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/04/15/pm-mixed-results-for-cubas-free-market-experiment/

Technology ~ trickling down to change the world…

Forgive a tech veteran’s nostalgia, but today I was reminded of how technology, over time, changes the world bit by bit (sorry, no pun intended).

Back in early 1984, Steve Jobs released a new personal computer, the Macintosh, a “computer for the rest of us.” Talk back then throughout the industry, and later throughout the world, was that the power of personal computing would “democratize” the power of information.

Even earlier, in the 1970’s, the academic and military world began sharing information through the Internet, before the interface Mosaic, in the 1990s, brought us the World Wide Web, the Internet for the rest of us.

Today, in 2011, a little Chinese child abducted from his parents 3 years ago and set to begging on the streets for his new “father”, was found by the Chinese police through a micro-blog set up for just this purpose. This is in contemporary China, a country holding much suspicion and control over allowing Internet access and the “democratization of the power of information” to its people.

There is a reading in the iChing about Water, one of the basic elements (Earth, Air, Fire and Water). The reading is entitled “The Abyss” because water trickles down and around all obstacles in its natural order, seeking its ultimate destination.

Technology anytime anywhere, electronic knowledge sharing, the Internet – these are all our new element, our new Water, trickling down over time, around all obstacles, to the vision first crafted not so long ago – knowledge for the rest of us, for all of us.